Page 45 - AA 2026

Syria

Late onset of seasonal rains delayed planting

of 2026 cereal crops

secutive years of significantly below-average domestic
production. International sanctions on financial transac-
tions, imposed since 2011, were lifted in June 2025, facili-
tating imports. However, economic uncertainty, national
currency devaluation and localized domestic unrest con-
tinue to constrain access to foreign currency required to
secure cereal imports to adequately cover consumption
Planting of the 2026 cereals started late in rainfed areas needs.
due to the delayed onset of seasonal rainfall in December
2025. The planted area is likely to be limited driven by Food insecurity persisted in areas affected by conflict
early season dry conditions and high input costs, includ- and drought in 2025
ing seeds, fuel, fertilizers, labour and transport, which dis- According to the 2025 Food Security Assessment , while
couraged farmers from expanding planted areas. Howev- food security improved in some governorates, includ-
er, above-average rainfall in December replenished soil ing Tartous and Damascus, food insecurity persisted in
moisture levels, supporting crop establishment. Precipita- conflict- and drought-affected areas including Raqqa, Al
tion between February and April will be critical for crop Hasakeh and As Suwayda. The severe drought in 2025
development. Above-average temperatures are forecast, adversely affected agricultural production and limited
which may adversely affect yields livelihood opportunities, reducing the profitability of ag-
Cereal production estimated significantly below av- ricultural activity and agriculture-based livelihoods. This
erage in 2025 due to severe drought added to the challenges faced by the Syrian population,
Total cereal production in 2025 was estimated at 1.2 mil- including cash liquidity shortages that hinder the financ-
lion tonnes, more than 60 percent below the average, due ing of economic activities and disrupt markets, resulting
to severe drought conditions. Rainfall amounts through- in reduced households’ income and constrained access to
out the season, between November 2024 and May 2025, food.
were more than 50 percent below the long-term average. The Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB), a key indica-
Furthermore, localized unrest during the planting season tor of the domestic cost of living, decreased by almost
and high prices of inputs negatively affected the extent of 20 percent year-on-year in November 2025, mainly due
planted area. to the lifting of import restrictions, which increased food
Above-average wheat import requirements forecast supply, and the removal of military checkpoints across the
for 2025/26 marketing year country, which reduced transport costs. However, despite
Wheat import requirements for the 2025/26 marketing the MEB decline, the official minimum wage covers only
year (July/June) are forecast at 3 million tonnes, nearly 70 half of the food components of the MEB, indicating persis-
percent above the five-year average, following two con- tent weak purchasing power.
Arab Agriculture 2026 43