Page 43 - AA 2026

Somalia

Near‑Total Failure Of 2025 Secondary Deyr

Harvest Due To Drought

Harvesting of 2025 secondary Deyr warranted.
crops was completed in January 2026 Livestock sector severely affected
in central and southern regions, by water and pasture shortages
where it typically accounts for about The October to December 2025
40 percent of the total annual cereal Deyr rains failed also in central and
output. The October to December northern pastoral areas, with ensuing
2025 Deyr rainy season failed and the drought severely affecting the avail-
ensuing drought conditions (ASI map) ability of pasture and water for live-
resulted in a dismal performance of stock. Pastoralists were often forced
the cropping season. Deyr season to start livestock migration earlier
crop production (maize and sorghum) and to move further than usual, in- Similarly, in the capital, Mogadi-
is estimated at about 15 600 tonnes, creasing animal concentrations along shu, prices of sorghum and maize in-
the lowest output on historical record migration routes, with a higher risk of creased by 25 and 45 percent, respec-
and approximately 75 percent below disease transmission. Animal body tively, between November 2025 and
the already low average of the previ- conditions are at very low levels and January 2026, when they were about
ous five years, which includes three livestock deaths due to starvation and 20 percent higher year on-year.
seasons with a reduced output. Food security situation significantly
diseases, reported since late 2025, in-
The minor Gu/Karan harvest, gath- creased during the January to March deteriorated in early 2026 due to neg-
ered last November in northern re- 2026 Jilaal dry season. Milk produc- ative impact of drought on crops and
gions, also had a poor performance tion is at very low levels, with a nega- livestock
due to well below-average rainfall tive impact on the diet and incomes of According to the results of the lat-
amounts. pastoralist households. est Integrated Food Security Phase
By contrast, production of 2025 Prices of cereals surging due to Classification (IPC) analysis, about
major Gu crops, harvested last July dismal performance of Deyr harvest 6.5 million people (33 percent of the
in central and southern regions, was Retail prices of cereals surged in population) are estimated to face IPC
well above average, due to abundant late 2025 and early 2026 in most mon- Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse levels of
and well-distributed precipitation. itored markets, as seasonal patterns acute food insecurity between Feb-
Aggregate 2025 cereal production were compounded by concerns over ruary and March 2026. This figure in-
is estimated at 147 700 tonnes, about the dismal performance of the 2025 cludes about 2 million people in IPC
4 percent above the average of the Deyr cropping season. Phase 4 (Emergency), which is about
previous five years. Prices of sorghum in Dinsoor Mar- 50 percent higher than in the October
Land preparation for planting of the ket, located in the sorghum belt in to December 2025 period and almost
April to June 2026 Gu season crops is Baidoa Region, and prices of maize twice the estimate in the same period
underway in central and southern re- in Qorioley Market, located in Lower of the previous year.
gions, in anticipation of seasonal rains Shabelle Region, the main maize pro- The high prevalence of food inse-
that are due to start in April. Weather ducing area, more than doubled be- curity and its sharp increase are due
forecasts point to a high likelihood of tween September 2025 and January to the negative impact on crops and
near-average to above-average pre- 2026. Prices of sorghum and maize in livestock of the drought as well as the
cipitation amounts. However, there is these markets in January 2026 were protracted conflict which continues
a high level of uncertainty and close more than twice their year-earlier disrupting and damaging local liveli-
monitoring of weather conditions is values. hoods.
Arab Agriculture 2026 41