Page 42 - AA 2026

Somalia

FAO warns of Somalia flooding later in 2026

According to FAO’s Somalia Water El Niño-linked flood concern for So- partners use the coming months to
and Land Information Management malia is expected from the start of the plan accordingly and activate antici-
unit (SWALIM), the immediate risk Deyr season, from October to Decem- patory action measures.
of major riverine flooding during the ber. In particular FAO recommends that
June–September period is reduced “Current ENSO forecasts indicate a priority actions should include:
compared with earlier concerns. greater than 90 percent likelihood of
This is due to limited rainfall ob- El Niño conditions developing during • updating riverine flood prepared-
served so far during the Gu season, the October–December 2026 Deyr ness and evacuation plans;
combined with forecasts indicating a season,” he said. • inspecting and repairing weak
likelihood of El Niño-driven below- “If this materializes, above-normal embankments along the Juba and Sha-
normal June-September Kiremt rain- Deyr rainfall across the region could belle rivers;
fall over the Ethiopian highlands dur- substantially increase the likelihood • identifying and preparing safe
ing the coming months. of significant riverine and flash flood- higher-ground locations;
Bethwell Mutai, Lead Meteorolo- ing, particularly along the Juba and • pre-positioning critical supplies in
gist for FAO-SWALIM, said that while Shabelle river basins and other flood-
levels particularly along the Shabelle prone areas. flood-prone districts;
River remain an area to monitor close- “This risk would be further ampli- • agreeing financing and activation
ly, the current short-term flood con- fied if a positive Indian Ocean Dipole arrangements before the Deyr season;
cern linked to April-June Gu rainfall is (IOD) also develops (characterized • strengthening community early
gradually receding. by warmer-than-average sea surface warning and communication systems;
“I want to emphasize that Somalia’s temperatures in the western Indian and,
volatile, fast-moving and unpredict- Ocean relative to the eastern Indian • system-wide activation and coordi-
able climatic patterns leave us with Ocean), as the combined influence of nation under Government leadership
no room for complacency,” Dr Mutai El Niño and a positive IOD is often as-
said. “It does not in the least reduce sociated with enhanced rainfall over “In summary, while the June-Sep-
the need for preparedness. On the the Horn of Africa, increasing the like- tember Hagaa season river flood
contrary, it gives us a critical pre- lihood of widespread flooding as was threat has eased, this should not be
paredness window of more than three witnessed in 2023 and during the dev- interpreted as a reduced overall flood
months.” astating floods of 1997.” risk for 2026,” Dr Mutai said.“The Deyr
Citing IGAD Climate Prediction and Dr Mutai said that against this back- season remains the main period of
Application Centre’s just released cli- drop it is imperative that government concern, and preparedness should
mate outlook, Dr Mutai said the main institutions, donors and humanitarian begin now, not when the rains start.”
40 Arab Agriculture 2026