Page 27 - Vol.37-No.1 issue

BRAZIL AGRICULTURE EXPORT

2020-2021 ORANGE CROP FORECAST UPDATE

AT 286.72 MILLION BOXES

The 2020-2021 orange crop forecast
update for the São Paulo and West-South-
west Minas Gerais citrus belt, published
on September 10, 2020 by Fundecitrus
is 286.72 million boxes of 40.8 kg each.
This figure corresponds to a decrease
of 0.36% in relation to the estimate pub-
lished in May and 25.87% as compared
to the previous crop, representing one
of the most severe crop losses in the last
ten years.
Approximately 20.54 million boxes
of the total crop should be produced in
West Minas Gerais. This year’s harvest
started later due to a larger amount of
fruit from the second bloom and did not
pick up until mid-June. Field survey data
shows that harvest in August reached es of oranges of the mid-season variety original projection. The revised weight
25% of the production, which is a slow- Pera Rio and of the late varieties Valen- for the mid-season variety Pera Rio is
er pace than the 35% recorded for the cia and Valencia Folha Murcha are also 148 grams (5.22 oz) per fruit, which is
same time last year. being revised and may be changed in equivalent to 276 fruits per box, as com-
pared to 268 estimated in May. The av-
future updates, depending on their aver-
Harvest reached 97% for the early va- age weight when the harvest ends. erage fruit weight for the late varieties
rieties Hamlin, Westin and Rubi; 66% for Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha de-
the other earlies Valencia Americana, Considering all varieties, the aver- creased from 177 to 174 grams per fruit,
Seleta and Pineapple; 13% for Pera Rio; age size projected in May of 257 fruits which corresponds to 234 fruits per box.
3% for Valencia and Valencia Folha Mur- to fill a 40.8 kg or 90 pound-box, which The fruit size for the late variety Natal
cha; and 2% for Natal. The average or- equivalent to oranges with an average remained the same because its peak
ange weight for the early varieties was weight of 159 grams each (5.61 oz), re- harvesting time is still far away and coin-
higher than initially estimated, thanks to mained the same in this forecast update, cides with the rainiest season of the year.
the rain that fell in May and June, right since the increased fruit weight for the
The projected fruit drop rate rose from
before harvest. early varieties should be offset by the 17% to 17.30% on verage, all varieties
reduced weight for the other varieties.
The weather changed in July and rain Should this weight be confirmed as har- considered. This slight adjustment is due
was replaced by drought conditions all vest progresses, oranges will be approx- to the increased fruit drop observed for
over the citrus belt. Days remained hot imately 6% smaller than those in the last the varieties Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi,
and dry in August, except for three re- five crop seasons (169 grams or 5.96 oz which was revised to 12.10%, 1.60 per-
gions where rainfall was considerable average weight). centage point above the projection of
Itapetininga (140 millimeters), Duartina May. Fruit drop increased with the re-
(108 millimeters), and Avaré (93 milli- turning rains associated with high winds
meters). Heavier rainfalls in the South- in June, following two drier months that
west could have caused an even greater triggered water shortage and fruit wilt-
fruit growth, but that effect was softened ing, rendering fruit more vulnerable to
because of the larger number of fruits drop especially in orange trees grafted
per tree in the sector that limited fruit on rootstock (root system) with lower re-
growth due to increased competition sistance to drought and in trees affected
for reserves in plants. Well-distributed by greening.
rainfall during the year in those regions
contrasts with rainfall in other locations Fruit of the early varieties Hamlin, The method used for the update is
in the citrus belt. In general, rainfall ac- Westin and Rubi harvested until the the same adopted in the previous crop
cumulated for the four months since the month of August weighed an average season. Information was obtained from
beginning of the crop season, that is, of 149 grams (5.26 oz), which is heavier the monitoring survey started in May
from May to August, is only 139 millime- than the 139 grams (4.90 oz) projected on 1,200 plots that are no longer visited
ters, which is 14% lower in comparison to in May. Consequently, the fruit size for when fruit harvest is complete. Other
the climatological normal (1981-2010). those varieties in this forecast is updated data used in this study was size of fruit
to 274 fruits per box, whereas in May that
received throughout the crop season
In addition to scarcer rainfall in July size had been projected to be 294 fruits by orange juice companies associated
and August, the forecast, until the publi- per box. Fruit weight of the other early to Fundecitrus – Citrosuco, Cutrale and
cation of this update, points to no signifi- varieties Valencia Americana, Seleta and Louis Dreyfus – for industrial processing.
cant rains for the next 15 days. This water Pineapple is revised to 160 grams (5.64 Each processing company supplies indi-
shortage in most of the citrus belt should oz), as compared to the 151 grams (5.33 vidual data under confidentiality to the
inhibit the growth of oranges, which are oz) projected in May, therefore chang- independent consulting firm for the cal-
expected to be lighter at harvest than ing the fruit size to 255 fruits per box, culation of the average size of processed
the projected weight. Therefore, the siz- as compared to 271 fruits per box in the fruit.

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Vol. 37 No. 1 25