Page 28 - AWA Vol.36-No.5

USA AGRI EXPORTS

OUTLOOK FOR USA EXPORT FOR LIVESTOCK

AND POULTRY IN 2020

Broiler Meat ability of an exportable product, higher
prices may dampen the rate of growth,
For 2020, broiler meat production especially in price-sensitive markets.
is forecast over 4 percent higher to a
record of 45.8 billion pounds. During Eggs
2019, broiler-type layer flocks were Total U.S. egg production in 2020 is
above year-earlier for most of the year forecast to increase for the fifth consec-
with the pace of growth increasing in utive year to reach a record 9.6 billion
the last quarter. Despite pressure on dozen, almost 2 percent higher than 2019.
margins, producers do not appear to Table egg production in 2020 is forecast
be slowing the pace of expansion early at a record 8.3 billion dozen, over 1 per-
in the year; however, it is expected that cent above 2019. High egg prices in late-
weaker prices will weigh on producers 2017 and in 2018 set the stage for a pro-
as the year progresses and that the rate duction expansion which is still ongoing.
of expansion will slow during the year. The table egg laying flock expanded
Broiler weights are expected to reflect during much of 2019 and on January 1,
an expected increase in the proportion 2020, the table layer flock was 34.1 mil-
of heavier-weight birds. lion birds, almost 3 percent above 2019.
U.S. broiler meat exports for 2020 are Although weaker egg prices in 2019 may
forecast to increase to a record 7.4 bil- have weakened producer margins, pro-
lion pounds, a 4 percent increase from ducers continue to add to their breeding
2019, and eclipsing the prior record set flocks, signaling little intention to slow
in 2013. Large domestic supplies and expansion thus far in 2020. Growth in
robust international demand will sup- expanding. In recent months, eggs in in- the number of eggs per bird increased
port stronger exports in 2020. China’s in 2019 and is expected to continue in-
announcement late in 2019 that it was cubators on the first of the month have creasing during 2020; this will provide
been both above and below year-earlier
reopening its market to U.S. poultry meat additional support for growth. Hatching
will also help support increased sales as levels. On the other hand, poultry place- egg production for 2020 is expected to
ments earlier in December, and Janu-
the year progresses. However, chicken increase in 2020, reflecting increases in
prices in China have not increased to the ary were above year. Nonetheless, with both broiler and egg flocks. In 2019, egg
markets in closer balance, higher turkey
same extent as pork or beef, which may and egg product exports were 334 mil-
affect the competitiveness of U.S. poultry prices during the year will be support- lion dozen, shell egg equivalent, virtu-
ive of margins and are expected to en-
meat. ally unchanged from 2018. Weaker sales
courage an expansion in production. For
2020, the National turkey hen price is to Japan and the United Kingdom were
forecast to average just under $1.01 per largely offset by gains in sales to Mexico
pound, compared to an average of $0.89 and Hong Kong. Exports are expected to
in 2019. decline to 310 million dozen in 2020 on
Turkey’s exports for 2020 are forecast stable global demand and higher prices
reduce the competitiveness of U.S. eggs.
to increase by about 3 percent to 660 mil-
lion pounds. Mexico remains the largest Despite increased supplies, demand
destination for turkey exports but with for eggs is expected to remain strong
U.S. increasing production there may be and support prices. For 2020, New York
increased opportunities to expand sales wholesale egg prices are forecast to
to other markets. Although increased average just under $1.00 per dozen, up
The National Composite wholesale from the $0.94 average for 2019.
broiler price is forecast to average turkey production will increase the avail-
$0.87 per pound in 2020, compared with
an average of $0.89 in 2019. Prices are
expected to decline in the face of both
increased broiler meat production and
competition from record supplies of beef
and pork.
Turkey

Turkey production for 2020 is fore-
cast to increase 1 percent to 5.89 billion
pounds. After production cuts in 2018 and
2019 in response to low prices, the mar-
ket appears to have come into balance.
Stocks declined to historical levels and
prices began to recover in the second
half of 2019. However, recent hatchery
data has provided mixed signals as to
whether the industry has committed to

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