Page 28 - AA 2025 Year Book Summary

Lebanon

Winter cereal harvest in 2024 estimated well

below average due to adverse weather conditions

According to the findings of the directly, or indirectly food insecurity
Crop and Food Security Assessment of most Lebanese and refugees in
Mission (CFSAM) conducted in July, the country.
2024 winter cereal production is es- According to the Integrated Food
timated at 120 000 tonnes, about 34 Security Phase Classification (IPC),
percent below the five-year average
underpinned by adverse weather 1.65 million people are projected to
conditions. Despite above-average face high acute food security (IPC
rainfall amounts from November Phase 3 [Crisis] or above) from De-
2023 to February 2024, which im- cember 2024 to March 2025. The con-
proved soil moisture and favoured flict has severely damaged agricul-
early crop development, drought tural lands, worsened the economic
conditions in the spring, a heatwave are forecast at 670 000 tonnes, about downturn and displaced people
in May and an outbreak of yellow 4 percent above the average, reflect- while destroying productive assets,
rust disease, adversely affected ing the downturn in 2024 domestic including agricultural resources.
yields of cereal crops, particularly production. Covering these needs This has led to an urgent need for as-
during critical the flowering and will highly depend on the country’s sistance among agricultural house-
grain filling stages. capacity to import, specifically the
availability of foreign currency. The holds, including displaced families,
Planting of 2025 winter cereals was to restore their productive capacity
delayed until December 2024 due conflict has negatively impacted the or resume farming activities in less-
to the intensified conflict, which re- economic situation, reducing foreign affected areas. Furthermore, the
stricted farmers’ field access. Below- currency inflows, which may slow
average precipitation amounts last down import pace. tourism sector, a key contributor to
November and December in Baal- The explosion at the Port of Bei- the Gross domestic product (GDP),
bek-Hermel and the Bekaa Valley, rut in August 2020, which destroyed experienced a sharp decline, further
coupled with a forecast pointing to government-operated grain silos deterring livelihoods.
drought conditions in February and with wheat storage capacity suffi- While the national currency has
March are anticipated to have an ad- cient for approximately six months been stabilized since 2024, retail
verse impact on yields.
of national consumption, signifi- food prices remain high following
The protracted economic crisis cantly weakened the country’s re- years of hyperinflation, making in-
is likely to continue hampering the silience to future supply shocks. The flation a key driver of food insecu-
agriculture sector in 2025. After the destruction of silos has led importers rity. In November 2024, the annual
financial collapse in 2019, access to and millers to keep inventories at food inflation rate was 23.2 percent,
credit facilities became limited and their facilities, which are estimated decreasing significantly from the
farmers now need to cover their ex- to cover only one to two months of previous year’s annual rate of 220
penses using cash, mostly paying
with United States dollars. Access to national consumption. percent, due the unofficial adoption
inputs such as seeds, fertilizers, pes- Food insecurity to persist in 2025, of United States dollar pricing sys-
ticides and fuel, is highly vulnerable amid economic crisis and extensive tem which initiated in 2023.
to the exchange rate and price fluc- infrastructure damage due to con- The monthly cost of the Surviv-
tuations, as these inputs are largely flict al Minimum Expenditure Basket
imported and potentially increase With the escalation of the conflict (SMEB) surged by around 17 percent
production costs. in September 2024, disruptions to in December 2024 compared to the
Cereal import requirement for the local economy such as trade, same month in 2023, reaching LBP
2024/25 forecast at near-average tourism and agricultural production, 40.6 million (USD 449) for a family
level displacement and limited humani- of five, with a significant negative
Wheat import requirements for the tarian access have emerged a signif- impact on households’ purchasing
2024/25 marketing year (July/June) icant compounding factor affecting power.
26 Arab Agriculture 2025