Page 30 - AA 2024

Libya

Planting of 2024 cereal crops nearing completion

Sowing of the 2024 winter grain crops, start of the war in Ukraine, wheat origins
for harvest from April 2024, started in shifted towards the Russian Federation,
mid October and is nearing conclusion. mostly due to price considerations.
Although bellow average aggregate Between 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing
rainfall amounts were received in years, wheat imports from the Russian
September and October 2023 in the Federation have more than doubled.
main producing areas along the coast,
rainfall distribution was reckoned to Political instability persists, high
be favourable, providing adequate soil crude oil prices trigger production
moisture in time for sowing. increases
Despite general improvements in After a year on year contraction of
security facilitated access to fields, almost 30 percent in 2020 in real terms,
farmers reported that power cuts and opportunities. Although the exact extent the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
high prices of inputs, including seeds, to which the dams actually served for estimated that the Libyan economy grew
irrigation purposes remains unknown
water, fuel and machinery, continue to considering the dams were reported to be by about 28 percent in 2021, driven by
constrain their ability to cultivate land. in need of repairs, remote sensing images strengthening global oil prices and
Agricultural production is principally indicate that some fields in the area were improved political stability, before
constrained by the landscape, only irrigated, with irrigation more prevalent contracting by 10 percent in 2022.
about 12 percent of the total area of 15.4 for high value crops. However, aggregate
million hectares is arable. Although 470 2024 cereal production is unlikely to Despite the elevated international crude
000 hectares are suitable for irrigation, decline significantly due to the dams’ oil prices benefiting the economy that
only about 240 000 hectares are currently collapse, while the impact on regional is reliant on exports of hydrocarbons,
irrigated due to concerns over the availability of fruits and vegetables is uncertainty regarding disruptions to
depletion of underground water. Cereals likely to be more pronounced. oil production and security tensions
are cultivated in coastal regions, where Close to average cereal production following the delay of the national
rainfed production or cropping with in 2023, stable import requirement elections in December 2021, tentatively
supplementary irrigation is possible, and scheduled for December 2023, affect the
in some arid areas in the south, under full Overall rainfall amounts in the main country’s economic environment.
irrigation. producing areas along the coast were
Collapse of two dams caused loss- satisfactory and cereal crop production Higher crude oil prices and slight
in 2023 is estimated at a near average
es of lives and material damages level of 209 000 tonnes, unchanged from improvements in the security situation
Rainfall in early September was the previous year. supported a recovery in oil production.
extremely abundant along the The country relies heavily on imports In 2022, oil output per day has been
northeastern coast, where more than (up to 90 percent) to cover its cereal particularly volatile, bottoming out at less
10 centimetres of rain overnight from consumption requirements (mostly wheat than 200 000 barrels owing to protests
a cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea for human consumption and barley for in fields and ports, amidst the political
inundated settlements. The city of Derna, feed) and changes in domestic cereal crisis. In November 2023, daily output
with a population of about 90 000 people, production have a limited impact on the reached 1.24 million barrels/day.
was one of the worst hit as floods triggered magnitude of the import requirement. In In November 2023, the official
the collapse of two dams, resulting in a the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June), exchange rate was maintained at LYD 4.8/
loss of lives of over 20 000 people and the import requirement is projected at USD 1, while rates on the parallel market
widespread material damages. 3.1 million tonnes, about the same as in exceeded LYD 6/USD 1. The unification of
Losses and infrastructure damages the previous year and close to average. central banks is likely to narrow the gap
have been detrimental to income earing Between 2016 and 2020, the country between the official and parallel market
sourced over 30 percent of its wheat rates. The annual food inflation rate
imports from Ukraine and 20 percent from remains lowest in the subregion owing to
the Russian Federation. Following the a widespread use of consumer subsidies,
registering 3.36 percent in July 2023.
According to the 2023 Libya
Humanitarian Needs Overview, about
300 000 people (less than 4 percent of the
population) are estimated to be in need
of humanitarian assistance in 2023, down
from 800 000 people (10 percent of the
population) in 2022. The dam destruction
in the eastern part of the country in
September 2023 further increased the
needs, particularly in the shelter and
sanitation sectors.
28 Arab Agriculture 2024