Page 43 - AA 2023 Year Book Website

Somalia

FAMINE EXPECTED TO BE AVERTED DUE TO SCALED UP

HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE, BUT FOOD SECURITY

SITUATION REMAINS DIRE

Although famine was projected be- has been faster than normal, resulting in low average levels as indicated by the
tween April and June 2023 for rural significant pasture and water shortages. forecasts, it would represent the sixth
communities in Baidoa and Burhakaba Although the “Deyr” rains supported consecutive poor rainy season.
districts in Bay Region and internally some improvements in livestock body
displaced persons (IDPs) in Baidoa town conditions and benefited the repro-
and Mogadishu, it is currently expected duction of small ruminants, herd sizes
to be averted due to scaled up humani- remain at very low levels. After wide-
tarian assistance. In addition, the Octo- spread animal deaths, with more than
ber December rains, despite being be- 3.8 million heads of livestock estimated
low average, had a better performance to have perished between July 2021 and
compared to the recent rainy seasons. April 2022, herd sizes are currently be-
tween 30 and 70 percent below average.
With the April July “Gu” rainy season
forecast to be poor, animal numbers and
availability of livestock products are ex-
pected to remain at very low levels.
Dismal 2022 cereal production
Harvesting of the 2022 secondary
“Deyr” crops was completed in Febru-
ary 2023 in central and southern regions,
where it typically accounts for about 40
percent of the total annual cereal output.
However, the food security situation The performance of the rainy season in
remains dire and, at national level, about terms of rainfall amounts and distribu-
6.5 million people (almost 40 percent tion was better than forecast and the Prices of cereals declining between
of the total population) are projected to recent rainy seasons, but seasonal rains December 2022 and February 2023
face severe acute food insecurity be- and hence cereal production were still Prices of locally produced cereals
tween April and June 2023. This figure, below average. declined between December 2022 and
about 65 percent higher than a year ear- Last year, both the “Karan” harvest, February 2023 with the “Deyr” harvest.
lier, includes about 4.4 million people in gathered in November 2022 in northern Prices of sorghum decreased by 10 45
IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), 1.9 million in IPC regions, and the major “Gu” harvest, percent, while prices of maize dropped
Phase 4 (Emergency) and 223 000 in IPC gathered in July in central and southern by 5 15 percent. Prices of sorghum and
Phase 5 (Catastrophe). regions, had a very poor performance maize in February where up to 40 and
The high prevalence and severity of as inadequate amounts and erratic dis- 25 percent, respectively, below the high
food insecurity are due to prolonged tribution of seasonal rains severely con- levels of one year earlier. In the capital,
drought, which began in late 2020 and strained yields. Mogadishu, by contrast, prices were just
caused severe crop and livestock losses. Aggregate 2022 cereal production is 5 percent lower on a yearly basis, as the
The impact of the drought on house- estimated at 138 000 tonnes, the second presence of the drought displaced com-
holds’ food security has been com- lowest output on record. munities boosted local demand.
pounded by prolonged conflicts and Land preparation for the planting of In Burao market, one of the main live-
hikes in international prices of wheat the 2023 “Gu” season crops is underway stock markets in the Horn of Africa, pric-
and fuel caused by the war in Ukraine. in central and southern regions. If April es of goats in February 2023 were 17 per-
Herd sizes at very low levels due to June precipitation amounts will be at be- cent lower than one year earlier, mainly
widespread animal deaths as a result of the deterioration of body
conditions due to consecutive poor rainy
Prolonged drought conditions have seasons. Prices of cereals declined more
significantly affected rangeland re- steeply, and sorghum prices in February
sources in southern agropastoral areas 2023 were 25 percent lower on a yearly
and central northern pastoral areas. basis. As a result, the livestock to cereal
The below average October Decem- terms of trade for pastoralists improved
ber “Deyr” rains were insufficient for by 10 percent between February 2022
a complete regeneration of rangeland and February 2023. However, these lim-
resources, which entered the January ited food access gains are largely poten-
March “Jilaal” dry season at below aver- tial, as pastoral households are engaged
age levels (see Vegetation Health Index in repopulating their herds and have few
map). As a result, rangeland depletion animals to sell

Arab Agriculture 2023 41